2008 Average Joe's NFL Preview

The NFL season kicks off this week! Yes! I can't believe it's finally here.

It's time for predictions.

Every year, I swear the so-called "experts" sit there and pick their winners for the upcoming NFL season by just xeroxing a copy of the previous NFL season standings. They pick the same division winners in every division except either the NFC North or South, and that's it. Some of them even pick the same wild cards as the previous year. It's embarrassing. Everybody is afraid to go out on a limb -- except me, of course.

I've been doing my NFL research for the past 8 months. To make my bold predictions, I went through all 32 NFL rosters , scouring the teams for talent. Then I went to the schedules and counted to most definite LOSSES (not wins), calculating road teams and good teams coming to town.

To prove my point about lame "expert" predictions, I will chart the 2008 NFL predictions with the chart below. I will list the teams on how they finished last season. Then put up the expert picks for this upcoming season. ESPN stands for the writers at ESPN who didn't dare make one bold prediction. Then it will be Sports Illustrated's Dr. Z (SI), who has made bold predictions in the past and comes up laughably short (remember the Miami Dolphins two years ago?). Then I will post Tuesday Morning Quarterback, aka Gregg Easterbrook's predictions (TMQ). He is a very detailed writer, but can be a little cocky. Then finally, I will post Average Joe's predictions (JOE).

You will see that a lot of experts go 1, 2, 3, 4 in a lot of divisions. And most pick the exact division winners from a year ago. Wow, don't go too far out on that limb ESPN!

(Note: click on the chart to make bigger if it's difficult to read)

In recent years, the trend has been not to pick the Super Bowl winner, (because believe me, nobody thought the New York Giants would win it all last year, not even Giants fans), but to pick the surprise team. We call this the sleeper. Last year nobody saw Cleveland and Green Bay winning double-digit games. In 2006, the sleepers were the Jets and the Saints.

Who is it going to be this year? The boldest prediction I have heard is from Aaron Schatz in ESPN The Magazine who said it was going to be the Houston Texans. Good choice. They've never made the playoffs, they have drafted a very explosive, young defense and they have a good running game that mimics the Denver Broncos (who have had some of the best running stats in the past decade).

The Arizona Cardinals are getting some buzz, as always, but it's the cardinal (pun intended) rule not to pick them as a sleeper. The Oakland Raiders have a very easy schedule, but until owner Al Davis croaks or sells the team, you can't count on them.

This season's true sleepers are the Raiders, Dolphins, Falcons, Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, Texans, Ravens and Lions. I liked the Rams, but they've been picked too many times.

I picked the Ravens to win the division. It's my homer pick. But heck, when Kyle Boller started as a rookie, the Ravens won the division. Why not new rookie QB Joe Flacco?

My official sleeper pick is the Detroit Lions. Picking them makes me cringe, mainly because general manager Matt Millen still runs the team. But they do have the best quarterback in their division. Wide receivers Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are studs. I love Jim Colletto as an offensive coordinator (RB Jamal Lewis ran for 2,066 yards when Colletto was the offensive line coach with the Ravens in 2003). They can simply outscore the other teams in their division. Plus, they've been cursed since Barry Sanders retired. They're due.

My Super Bowl pick? The Cowboys (as a wild card) over the Colts. The Patriots are susceptible to the pass, and Indy will surely expose that weakness in the playoffs. Dallas needs to go in as a wildcard so Romo won't crap the bed. Plus, I'd love to see Wade Phillips retire on top. I've really grown to like "grandpa" Wade watching HBO's Hard Knocks.